Why Viktor Zubkov Will Not Be President of Russia

As we all know, yesterday Prime Minister Michail Fradkov was replaced with Viktor Zubkov, officially due to health reasons. Immediately journalists and analysts started speculating on whether Zubkov might, in a way similar to Putins own ascent to power, be the present president’s designated heir. In this first posting I intend to show that it is not the case.

The most obvious reason is Zubkov’s age. At 65 he is already way past the usual retirement age in Russia and far older than Putin himself. He does not really constitute the young, energetic ideal of a leader that the present president has proved to be in the eyes of many Russians.

A second factor is that it seems highly unlikely that Putin would let go of power and leave it with someone with no obvious experience from Kremlin intrigues (even though his connections with Putin and his entourage go back many years). Remember that Putin himself had acquired vast experience from the Presidential Administration before being named head of the Federal Security Service (FSB) and then consequently prime minister. Therefore, the parallell that some people are now making, that Putin is doing what Yeltsin did in 1999, choosing a previously unheard of successor from the outside is wrong. While Putin was indeed a crown prince, Zubkov has more of an interimistic aura and will most likely remain in office through the presidential election.

But why was he made PM? There is no reason to believe Putin was dissatisfied with Michail Fradkov; if there is anything Fradkov has been, it is loyal to the President.  There is also no apparent social, economic or political crisis that would justify reshaping the government. Hence, we should not exclude the possibility that the reason for Fradkov’s resignation was indeed health-related. Something obviously made Putin name a new PM and while he could have made use of this opportunity to select an heir, he chose not to. And he is not likely to give any hints before the parliamentary elections this autumn, since he would want those to run without interference. Actually, he will wait until what he considers to be the last possible moment, in order to avoid being turned into a lame duck president, while the different groups try to either reposition themselves around the candidate, or try to make his campaign default. The last scenario is probably what worries the present leadership the most. Being the chosen one can be quite risky.

Now, what about the rumours that Putin might not leave and therefore has he chosen Zubkov as his successor? The plot here is that Zubkov would be elected president with the support of Putin (without it he would obviously not stand a chance), then resign after his first term, thus making way for Putin to return to power and serve a third term in accordance with the constitution. It does not seem likely that Putin, if he wanted to stay, would choose this path; four years is a long time and too much of the unexpected could happen during that time for him to risk it. There is of course the theoretical possiblity of Zubkov being elected president, naming Putin as his prime minister and then resigning, which would make Putin acting president (again, I might add, since this is what happend when Yeltsin left office). But then, what if he does not resign? And what would it do to Russia’s image abroad, such an obvious attempt to side-step the constitution? This approach, too, seems far too risky (and definitely less elegant).

So to sum up; Viktor Zubkov has been given a lot of unjustified media attention as Putin’s heir to the throne. There is nothing to suggest he is anything other than a new Fradkov, i.e. an administrator with the mission to carry out the politics of the Kremlin and see through the succession. The two most frequently named candidates, Sergei Ivanov and Dmitriy Medveded, remain the most likely people to succeed Putin. My money is on Ivanov, they always have been. Why I will leave for another post.