Russian Democracy in 2050?

With President Putin’s announcement this Monday that he intends to be the first name on the United Russia party list in this autumn’s parliamentary elections and that he does not exclude the possibility of becoming prime minister after he steps down as head of state, confusion about what is going to happen now is everywhere. To sort out this mess and perform anything more than qualified guesswork with regards to the coming months of Russian domestic politics would demand more insight on what goes on in the long corridors of the Kremlin than most analysts have been able to come by. But while we are at it, it is, however, tempting to take a closer look on the longer perspective of Russian democracy; what will the situation be ten, twenty or even forty years from now?

When looking at Russia one is always reminded of the fact that evolution is not taking place on merely one level. When asked about how Russia is evolving, it is sometimes tempting to slip into the ordinary mood of pessimism, which is always present whenever the fate of this fascinating country is debated. Merely leaving it at that, which is often the case, is a mistake. There is a democratic, or political, evolution that admittedly leaves much to be desired. But there is also an economic evolution that is, I dare to say, astonishing. We must keep that in mind.

According to a report by the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA), income levels in Russia will exceed 90% (up from some 37% today) of the levels in EU15 member countries by 2050. (The report can be found at http://domino.sampo.fi/external/sbd/ks.nsf/liitteet/ETLAtutkimus.pdf/$file/ETLAtutkimus.pdf.) Already, the desire for consumption goods among the members of the middle class is enormous. That is not too surprising, considering history. After some seventy years of communism when there was nothing to buy and nearly ten years of economic chaos when there was no money about, the desire to buy stuff will not go away easily. The same goes for the wish to travel and see the world, something that was denied these people during communist reign. There might be setbacks along the road, but there is no doubt about Russians getting richer and their middle class growing bigger.

These improvements are not distributed evenly across the country. There is also a serious demographic issue that has to be dealt with, either through higher birth rates or immigration. Nevertheless, the future looks very bright from an economic point of view and this will have consequences also for the evolution of Russian democracy. We are looking at decades of impressive economic growth and it will simply not go unnoticed.

Up until things started to go their way at about the turn of the century, Russia was in chaos and despair, also known as democracy. While people in the West consider democracy to be a prerequisite for stability, among Russians these expressions are often thought of as opposites. While this is understandable, history has proven to us many times that memory is short. Increasing wealth and a growing middle class should eventually lead to people starting to question their lack of genuine influence, when they can no longer remember the turmoil of Chapter One of A Democratic Russia. Some fifteen years from now, we will see a generation that was not even born then and did not have to live through the pain. Many of these people will be in universities and they will have opinions, take economic well-being for granted and not be satisfied by it. Far from everyone will agree with them, but that is the whole point of democracy.

And yes, there might not be nation-wide support for democratic change. Many people will likely resort to the often expressed opinion that such a vast country cannot be ruled by anyone but a strong, autocratic leader. But then again, such a luxury might not be needed. Power sits in Moscow, where most of the money is and where income levels are the highest. In the Ukraine, things were changed thanks to protests in Kiev, the capital, and against the wishes of the entire eastern part of the country. It is not by coincidence that the Russian authorities are closely watching everything that could turn into a popular movement like the one that stopped Viktor Yanukovitch from obtaining the presidency. They know. Real change might not happen in 2020, perhaps not even in 2030. But eventually, protests will arise and, given the speed of economic growth, it is very likely this will happen sooner rather than later. How the government will react then might provide us with new opportunities to slip into that old pessimism for a while, but we will see. Change has come in even more unexpected countries, such as the Soviet Union.

While we wait, I would not run for office anywhere in Russia. Risks are too high and the chances of succeeding are slim. I would, however, invest some of my money there.