Why did Russia stop fighting Georgia?

As it turns out there was no need to physically enter Georgia’s capital Tbilisi. Panic was already everywhere yesterday evening and President Saakashvili had to make an appeal so that its inhabitants would remain in the city. Militarily there was also nothing more for Russia to prove having demonstrated what little a tiny country (because it is awfully small) such as Georgia can put up against its armed forces. The conflict was in fact over as soon as Russian forces crossed into their rebellious neighbour. The question remains, though, why Russia suddenly decided to end the operation, after having publicly refused to even contemplate it when Saakashvili suggested it less than 24 hours earlier. 

That the conflict escalated to the point where it got totally out of hand in such a short time came as nothing but a shock to the Western powers. The nervousness among leading politicians has become more obvious with every foreign minister or president visiting either Moscow or Tbilisi in the midst of the conflict. Not very surprising considering that this was the first time in ages that Russian forces physically entered another country with hostile intentions. Russia’s political position was, however, never going to be very easy, so a prolonged conflict was not going to be in their interest. Refusing to acknowledge Saakashvili’s proposal to cease the hostilities yesterday seems like nothing but slightly prolonging the inevitable, creating more fear in Georgia (apparently successful considering the panicking in Tbilisi) and letting President Medvedev be the one deciding when to end the conflict.

What this conflict has surely accomplished is pushing Georgia even further towards the West. Today it was announced by President Saakashvili that Georgia is to leave the Commonwealth of Independent States, the rather loose organisation of former Soviet republics of which it, despite its controversies with Russia, has remained a member. Still the feelings towards the West, which failed to offer any military support during the conflict, though mobilised an impressive diplomatic task force, are not unambiguously warm. Georgia’s ambassador to NATO Revaz Beshidze today accused the alliance’s member states of having made the escalation possible by not extending an invitation to join the organisation during a NATO summit in April. Looking at it from a different perspective one could of course also argue that NATO members at the time fearing a candidate for membership with not one but two frozen conflicts on its soil have been proved nothing but right. Even though these past events have inevitably made Georgia even more eager to join not only NATO but also the European Union (the EU flag has been flying over government buildings for years and was clearly visible behind President Saakashvili during his televised address yesterday), the question remains: How eager are the members of these organisations to let the Georgians in? The U.S. is sure to continue offering its support and this blog would not be surprised to see President Bush pay a visit shortly, especially after his harsh remarks with regards to the conflict on Monday.* A fair assumption is that Georgia will be offered closer ties with these organisations but without the prospect of full membership anytime soon.

Not all of Georgia will benefit of course. Abkhazia and South Ossetia are most likely to be lost for the foreseeable future. The latter should be expected to receive economic support from Russia for rebuilding and there is even the possibility that Russia might acknowledge it as a sovereign state, a move made far more credible thanks to the Kosovo precedent. In that case, the same courtesy would be extended to Abkhazia very quickly. This would of course finally bring to an end some of the uncertainties concerning the status of these regions, but the solution would have come at a very heavy price. There might be celebrations on the streets of Tbilisi and people smirking in the Kremlin tonight. That does not change the fact that Tskhinvali lies in ruins, so if its inhabitants fail to see the greater picture, they should be forgiven.

*The full statement can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/08/20080811-1.html.