Will Russia recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia?

Just a few words on the possibility that Russia might recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia (if one goes, the other will surely follow) when (rather than if) South Ossetia formally declares independence from Georgia. Abkhazia did this as early as 1992, though it never bothered that many people. Acknowledging these two entities as sovereign states would of course be the final insult in the face of Georgia, but given the precedent set by Kosovo, it is a rather tough case to make why it shouldn’t happen. While Kosovo lacks the capacity to even govern itself properly without a babysitter, South Ossetia and Abkhazia have pulled that trick off since about the time when Yugoslavia collapsed into disarray. Now, that’s something to think about.

This does not necessarily mean that Russia will take the first chance there is and actually do it. For once, Russia prides itself of respecting international law and by formally recognising South Ossetia and Abkhazia it would lose one of its most popular oratorical weapons against the West, namely to accuse it of hypocrisy when it speaks of Georgia’s territorial integrity while at the same time letting Kosovo walk away from Serbia. Also, Russia is in general not very fond of secessionist republics, which has a lot to do with the rather complicated ethnic composition of its own part of the Caucasus. One possible solution for Russia, brought forward yesterday by Izvestiya, a Russian daily, would be to insist that the question of formal independence be resolved within the system of international law, while backing their pleas all throughout the process, which would likely last for several years. Now, as this blog sees it, this would bring with it several advantages for Russia. First, it would not have to secede the moral high ground when it comes to respecting international law. Second, it would secure Russia’s influence in the secessionist republics thanks to them fearing to lose their most vital sponsor. Third, it would further diminish Georgia’s chances of joining NATO, since there would still be no formal solution to the fact that it is not in control of its entire territory. The Duma, the lower house of Russia’s parliament, is due to consider a request to recognise South Ossetia in September. The result is not likely to be much of a surprise, but as always the devil will be in the details.