Medvedev for President

Finally, it seems we know. At a meeting with the leaderships of United Russia, A just Russia, Grazhdanskaya sila and the Agrarian Party President Putin announced he will support their joint candidate for the presidential elections next spring. Dmitri Medvedev is a long-time co-worker of Vladimir Putin, the head of Gazprom and a first deputy prime minister. The choice, however not unexpected, had been losing in popularity for quite some time amid speculations that Putin would himself run after having temporarily resigned. Even before this, he was also trailing his, among many analysts, somewhat more popular opponent Sergei Ivanov, when they were both considered to be the main contestants.

There are a few things to be considered here. Firstly, Dmitri Medvedev lacks a background within the security services, unlike many of the people considered to be viable candidates.  This means that the support of Putin becomes extremely important, since this will be the only factor constituting his presidential authority, at least in the beginning. This also serves as a guarantee for Putin’s continuous influence. Secondly, the choice of Medvedev probably means this is not a temporary arrangement. Medvedev is a fairly powerful candidate, though he will obviously not be as mighty as Putin for the foreseeable future. The circuits that have formed around Putin during his presidency will continue to fight for influence and Medvedev will have to rule in the shadow of his predecessor. On the other hand, this sounds a little like the situation for a certain Vladimir Putin when he ascended to the throne.

Why does the Kremlin seem so worried?

This weekend we again saw opposition protests being stopped by the police in Moscow and St. Petersburg. This time prominent opposition leaders, namely former Chess world champion Garry Kasparov and former Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov, were also arrested; Kasparov for organising an illegal protest and Nemtsov for… crossing the street in an way not in accordance with the law. While Nemtsov apparently was able to convince the police to let him go, Kasparov will have to spend the next five days in jail. Five days from now is December 2nd, election day. No more pre-election rallies for Mr. Kasparov, it seems.

With United Russia continuously polling at some 68 % of the vote, one might ask oneself what all the fuss is about. It is obvious that neither of the opposition parties will have the slightest chance of claiming any successes this coming Sunday, so why the harsh treatment from the government side? Could it be that people farther down the chain of command have started to take the initiative, either out of fear that anything less will prove to be unfavourable from a career perspective, or as a way of proving their worthiness to the people above? It could be so, but that of course does not take away the responsibility from the people that have set this trend and encouraged its implementation. These are the people with the highest authority.

It might also be the case that the Kremlin is simply determined to state an example to everyone watching, that there is not even worth trying voicing a differing opinion. It is very timely to do that at this moment, when the present leadership is popular and nobody really cares about the fate of the opposition. It gets a lot harder when it grows stronger, as has been witnessed in the Ukraine and Georgia. The grip on society is hard, but not so hard as was the grip of the old Communist Party in the Soviet Union. It does not have to be and it is probably not something they want. People do not vote for United Russia or reply that they would like to see Putin seek a third consecutive term out of fear, but because they wish so, even though the foundation of their popularity is the fact that nobody ells gets to say anything.

The thing is opinion polls also show that Russians like the right to choose their leader and whom to represent them in parliament. Putin and his entourage know this very well and they do not want to make too strong an impression that this liberty is being eroded, even though this is exactly what is happening. They want to keep people wishing to vote for them, which is a lot easier if they are the only ones being heard. But this is for now, what the situation will look like a few years from now is highly uncertain. People that stay in power for too long have a tendency to at some point lose most of their popularity, which makes a popular uprising more likely. Better then to set the standard now to scatter what little opposition there is and not take any chances.

Putin criticizing United Russia

Yesterday President Putin apparently filed some severe criticism of the Kremlin-loyal United Russia party, while on a trip to Krasnoyarsk. He is reported to have uttered that the party is in lack of any clear ideology and that it attracts “crooks” of various kinds. In the light of Putin a few weeks ago surprisingly stating that he would lead the United Russia party ticket in the upcoming elections to the state duma, this might seem just a little odd. Not necessarily.

It is true the party has no real ideological basis; its only opinion seems to be that whatever Putin says is good. One excellent example of this is Oleg Kovalyev, a deputy and member of the party leadership, who immediately after Putin’s statement replied with ”as usual, the president said the right thing”.  In fact, the election platform consists of a collection of speeches by the president that they have branded “Putin’s Way”. But why is Putin criticizing this lack of ideological foundation, then? One reason could be that he needs to reassure the public who is in charge. Even though United Russia was created by the Kremlin and has done nothing but offered its support to the present leadership, Putin might want to emphasize that this is a party circulating around and lead by him, not any possible successor as president. Putin is their leader, not whoever sits in the Kremlin.

Another reason for affiliating the party even closer with Putin is probably the fact that it has not been able to maintain its high popularity ratings in the latest opinion polls. There was an immediate positive reaction upon Putin’s announcement that he would lead their ticket, but that trend is no longer continuing. In fact, there are reports about its support shrinking. Putin also stated that a strong victory for the United Russia would provide him with the moral right to continue exercising a strong influence on the country. This is a powerful message, directed to the Russian voters, who continue to endorse their president. When he tells them to vote for United Russia, there is no doubt they will, and to make sure the words of the president were heard loud and clearly, they were given some eight minutes of coverage on the evening news, according to The Moscow Times.

A third reason might have been to send a message to the party itself. Not that it should form its own, independent ideology (heaven forbids!), but perhaps is the president not alltogether happy with its performance and the candidates it has put forward.

While he obviously had a lot to say about the party, Putin gave no further information on his own political future. When asked about why he had chosen United Russia, when it is so full of crooks and without an ideological base, the answer was simple: Because we do not have anything better. That is a strange way of trying to convince people to vote for you. Unless the party is going to win anyway and you are the only one who can change things to the better. To remain influential, you must deliver the votes, so that the party continues to be dependent on you. At the moment there is little doubt Putin will. It is just that he is not likely to take any chances.

No thank you, OSCE

Last week Russia did something apparently unprecedented. In a letter to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the Russian leadership, at this particular time represented by the Central Election Commission, made an attempt to dictate the size (i.e. make it very small) and composition of the team of election monitors that would be monitoring the coming parliamentary elections. Since the OSCE has no possibility of forcing its will upon the Russians, it seems likely there will be either a diminished OSCE mission going to Russia, or none at all. The Russians are hoping for the latter.

Russia’s reasons for attempting this scheme are several. For years it has been fighting what it sees as the OSCE focusing more on domestic democracy issues than regional security, failing to see the connection. On a number of occasions it has voiced its concern and criticized this development and, in the light of these past events, this is nothing but a natural escalation of the conflict. By trying to reduce the number of observers to as little as 70, Russia is in effect making it impossible for the election monitors to come up with any kind of definitive conclusion, even thought the mere fact that this is happening should serve as evidence that something is a bit fishy. Not that the United Russia party will have to cheat in order to bring home the election trophy, especially not after President Putin’s announcement that he will head their ticket. Opinion polls show there will be a landslide victory, much thanks to Putin’s now even closer affiliation to the party, which also seems to have been the reason for his candidacy in the first place. 

The thing is the OSCE does not only monitor the actual elections, but also whether campaigns are conducted freely. This is from where most of the alleged criticism would stem. There will basically be no ordinary election campaign; most of the televised debates will even be hidden from the public eye on time slots that could only with the maximum amount of generosity be referred to as prime time. Coverage of the United Russia, though, will as always be extensive, while the remains of the opposition will have severe difficulties getting their message out. Harassments are also likely; only last week the regional branch of the FSB in Novosibirsk conducted an investigation into the distribution of Communist Party leaflets (even though the Central Election Commission firmly rejected the security service’s claim that election laws had been violated). The treatment of the opposition movement Another Russia’s attempts to voice their opinions at city rallies also should not have gone unnoticed. An OSCE mission would recognize all this.

Despite the fact that most Russians love their present president and would vote for anyone or anything he would tell them to, opinion polls do show that they also value their right to choose. The Russian opinion does not seem very interested in returning to a truly autocratic dictatorship but would prefer to be able to cast their votes now and then. Therefore, the illusion of a democratic process remains important to the Kremlin. An OSCE report would without a doubt be critical and a blow to this illusion. That is why Russia is hoping its monitors will not show up at all, under the pretext that they would not be able to conduct their work anyhow.  

What’s Putin up to?

Yesterday, President Putin announced he would be the first name on the United Russia party list in the upcoming State Duma elections. He also did not rule out himself becoming prime minister after the presidential elections in March of 2008. At the moment, Russian domestic politics are extremely confusing. If anyone claims that he knows what on Earth is going on over there, he is either on a first-name basis with Putin or in way over his head. The present leadership are experts on creating political maskirovki and it is still too early to present a final analysis of the succession issue. Quite simply, there are far too many pieces missing in this jigsaw puzzle. But let’s use the pieces that are available and see whether we can do anything to sort this mess out.

Obviously, things are starting to heat up. There has been an increase in the political tempo that we have not seen for quite some time. First, Prime Minister Fradkov was replaced with Viktor Zubkov and now the president has, for basically the first time, given a clue to what he will do after he leaves office. First of all, we should now be able to rule out anyone trying to change the constitution so that Putin could run for a third successive term as head of state. This was not too much of the unexpected, since Putin has done nothing but deny the existence of any such plans. He will, however, with 100% certainty be elected to the State Duma. Will he then accept his seat? According to the Russian constitution (ch.5, art. 97 (2)), Putin would have to either decline his seat in the Duma, or resign the presidency. If he were to resign prematurely, Prime Minister Zubkov would assume the powers of acting president and would have to call presidential elections within three months. Now, would Putin be able to then run for president, thus circumventing the ban on serving more than two consecutive terms? Even though I am not an expert on the Russian constitution (I do wish I were, at the moment), I would imagine that it would be, from a legal point of view, stretching it a little too far. But, as always when it comes to Russian politics, I do not rule anything out.

Putin, for many good reasons, did not say whether he would take his seat if elected. He did, however, speculate on whether he could become prime minister in 2008. That would leave him in still a very powerful position, but that power would, officially, be limited to mostly economic and social issues. The degree of his powers would be decided by who becomes the next president. If the next president will be a strong one, we might see competing centres of power emerging, with Putin leading one faction and the president another. Though such a conflict would probably not be such a lousy option when it comes to improving the democratic environment in Russia, Putin most likely understands this fact and will be eager to avoid it.

A weak president, on the other hand, would secure Putin’s continuous, unchallenged authority and be helpful in preparing for a possible 2012 return to power. But as I have pointed out in an earlier article, this is still a somewhat risky strategy. Four years is a long time and much could change. Good economic performance, perhaps in combination with some populist measures, might make even a weak president popular among the people. Also, the powers of the president are vast and might prove tempting to use in order to secure that one remains in that position. The only way to prevent this seems to be an arrangement according to which the next president is to step down early into his term and thus make Putin acting president yet again, a position from which he would be the uncontested candidate in early elections for the presidency.

And still, Putin might not become prime minister. Some people have claimed that he might instead end up somewhere in the background, but still within a powerful position. Even though theoretically that could be the case, it would still leave him in a vulnerable position with no or very limited official powers. The risk of being marginalised seems too great.

But why is Putin on the United Russia party list in the first place? He certainly does not need to if his plan is to become prime minister (he has even stated that, despite the fact that he is running on their list, he will not become a member of the party). According to a recent poll conducted by the independent Levada Centre, United Russia would gain 55 % of the vote if elections were held today. Even with the 7 % threshold to enter the Duma and the entirely proportionate distribution of mandates in place, with these numbers they would only gain some 60% of the seats.  That is less than the two thirds absolute majority it has now and would need in order to make alterations to the constitution without asking anyone else. If public opinion were to turn their back on A Just Russia, which is also believed to be a creation of the Kremlin (that party is now balancing on the 7% threshold), United Russia would, however, get pretty close to achieving that absolute majority. With Putin’s star quality way bigger than United Russia’s, he would probably be able to deliver those votes, but frankly so could probably the Central Election Commission with the help of regional governors, who know their future careers depend on the election results where they govern. We might, though, be on to something here, but the picture is still too fuzzy to determine whether this is the case.

For now, it seems Putin will remain in power somehow, but whether as prime minister or president or something else is still too early to say. Quite frankly, we are in desperate need of more pieces if we want to finish this jigsaw puzzle. The good news are, eventually we will get there.